TAU model predicts which Red Sea fish will invade the warming Mediterranean

More than 120 fish species have moved from the Red Sea into the Mediterranean since the Suez Canal opened in 1869, a one-way flow known as Lessepsian migration that is speeding up as the Mediterranean warms. Researchers at Tel Aviv University have now built a statistical model that ranks Red Sea fish by how likely they are to follow. The study, published in the Journal of Animal Ecology, was reported by Ynetnews on 16 July 2026 and by the TPS news agency at the end of the month.

The work was led by Dr. Shahar Chaikin as part of his doctoral research, supervised by Prof. Jonathan (Yoni) Belmaker of the School of Zoology and the Steinhardt Museum of Natural History, with Dr. Tal Gavriel, Avery Deveto and Shahar Malamud. The team lowered baited stereo video cameras to depths of 5 to 150 metres in the Gulf of Eilat and along Israel's Mediterranean coast, and used hundreds of hours of footage to analyse 179 fish populations. Unlike earlier studies, which looked only at species that had already invaded, they also studied the source populations in the Red Sea, so they could tell which traits allowed the crossing and which changes happened afterwards.

The strongest predictor of success was not whether a fish is a generalist able to live almost anywhere, as many scientists had assumed, but whether it depends on coral reefs. Because the canal and the Mediterranean have almost no reefs like those of the Red Sea, reef-bound species rarely make it. Fish that already live away from reefs are the ones that establish themselves, and once there they quickly adjust their habits and tend to compete with native species for the same food and shelter rather than filling empty niches. The model flags the stellate pufferfish, the cinnabar goatfish and the yellowspotted trevally as among the most likely next arrivals.

The researchers stress that a high ranking does not mean a species will become harmful, but say such watch lists can guide early detection and monitoring before newcomers spread.