Hebrew University study finds climate models miss early signs of Middle East heatwaves

As record-breaking heatwaves hit the Mediterranean and the Middle East more often, researchers at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem have checked whether the world's leading climate models can see them coming. Their answer, published in the journal Weather and Climate Extremes and reported by Ynetnews on 15 July 2026, is only partly. The study was led by Andre Klif, Professor Chaim Garfinkel, Professor Dorita Rostkier-Edelstein and Dr Assaf Hochman.

The team compared 11 advanced climate models from the CMIP6 generation used in reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change with observations across the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East. Heatwaves in the region, they note, are not isolated events but the end of a chain of atmospheric changes that can begin a week before temperatures peak, with shifts in airflow and high-pressure systems over Europe, Turkey, India and parts of Africa funnelling hot air toward the region.

The models generally reproduced the heat itself, producing realistic heatwave statistics. But they often delayed, weakened or entirely missed the warning signals that come first. One key ingredient was a strengthening high-pressure ridge over Turkey: models that captured it better also matched the intensity of real heatwaves more closely. The observations also pointed to a link between the South Asian monsoon and eastern Mediterranean heat, a connection that none of the models reproduced. The authors suggest this reveals a wider weakness in how models handle interactions between tropical and mid-latitude weather systems.

Extreme heat is among the deadliest natural hazards and already strains power grids, water supplies, farming and health systems across the region. The researchers say that spotting the early signs as soon as possible will be central to preparing for a hotter world.