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Kenneth Arrow's 1963 paper launched health economics

Kenneth Arrow's 1963 paper on uncertainty and medical care explained why health care markets behave differently, laying a foundation for health economics.

Kenneth Arrow
Kenneth Arrow · 1921–2017
Person
Kenneth Arrow
Lived
1921–2017
Field
Economics
From
American

The story

In December 1963 the American Economic Review published Kenneth Arrow's paper "Uncertainty and the Welfare Economics of Medical Care." Arrow was then a professor at Stanford and had recently served on the staff of the President's Council of Economic Advisers. At the time, few economists studied health care as its own subject. Arrow asked why medicine and medical insurance are organised so differently from ordinary markets.

His answer centred on information. Patients usually know far less than doctors about their illness and treatment, and no one knows in advance who will fall sick or how badly. Arrow showed that these gaps, now called information asymmetry, help explain features such as professional licensing, the ethics expected of doctors, non-profit hospitals and the special role of insurance. Where one side of a transaction knows much more than the other, trust and institutions take the place that simple price competition plays in other markets. He concluded that ordinary free-market rules do not fit health care well.

The paper became one of the founding texts of health economics and of the wider economics of information. Later researchers applied the same insight to second-hand goods, online auctions and insurance of every kind, explaining why markets with unequal information depend on devices such as warranties and independent certification. Arrow himself described much of his career as the study of information as an economic variable, from how it is produced to how it is used.

He also put the ideas to practical use. Elected to the Institute of Medicine, he chaired two of its study committees, most recently one on the economics of antimalarial drugs, whose 2004 report called for a global subsidy to make effective treatment affordable. In 2010 he joined a friend-of-the-court brief supporting the Affordable Care Act when it was challenged in court.

A New York Times profile from 1972 described him as a humanist who tried to apply fundamental theory to social problems, and medical care was the first on its list. His paper remains a starting point for researchers studying how to design insurance, pay doctors and regulate health care.

Why it matters

Arrow's analysis still shapes how governments and insurers design health systems, from insurance rules to the regulation of medical professions.

About Kenneth Arrow

Economist whose impossibility theorem, general-equilibrium proofs and work on risk, information and health care reshaped economics; still the youngest winner of the Nobel economics prize.

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Kenneth Arrow
1921–2017 · Economics
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